K–5 Reading

Prediction from Evidence

30-minute full lesson · 15-minute short version

Ready-to-teach lesson

ELA SKILL LESSON · GRADES 2-3

Princess Angelica, Part-Time Lion Trainer

Working Out Where a Lion Would Hide

TIME
30 minutes full · 15 minutes short
PRIMARY SKILL
Build and test a prediction from evidence
OBJECTIVE
Use several pieces of evidence about a character or animal’s likely state to generate a search prediction, then test that prediction against what happens.
STUDENT EVIDENCE
A three-row inference sheet, a predicted search location or strategy, and a check against the outcome.
ESSENTIAL QUESTION
What makes a prediction evidence-based instead of a guess?

Before teaching

Read or play the complete book before the timed lesson. Keep the book available so claims and evidence can be checked against the text. Book-specific targets: Use Jelly's three pieces of reasoning about what the escaped lioness is likely feeling or needing, then follow the search that reasoning produces.

Materials:
the book, Student Evidence page, pencil.
Lesson sequence
TIME
TEACHING MOVE
4 min
Collect the evidence Record the relevant feelings, needs, or conditions described in the book.
6 min
Turn evidence into constraints For each row, say what kind of place or action it makes more likely.
7 min
Make the prediction Choose a location or search strategy that fits all rows.
8 min
Test it Compare the prediction with the book’s search and outcome.
5 min
Explain the result State whether the prediction was supported and which evidence mattered most.

ELA SKILL LESSON · TEACHER SUPPORT

Princess Angelica, Part-Time Lion Trainer

Working Out Where a Lion Would Hide

Access routes

SOLO
Use the book independently to complete the evidence page. Require book-based support for the reasoning.

page 1

SUPPORTED
Pause at the key evidence moments. Rephrase the task orally, then have students point to or record evidence before explaining.
LISTENING
Use narration and illustrations. Ask the same book-specific questions orally and accept pointing, choosing between evidence already visible in the book, drawing, or an oral explanation. Do not require teacher-invented answer choices.
EXTEND
Apply the same reasoning move to a second moment in the book or ask students to explain why a tempting alternative is weaker.

Teacher guidance

Keep evidence and prediction separate. Students should be able to point to each constraint before they name the place or strategy they expect.

Book-specific answer anchors

  • The inference must start with the three feelings/evidence points Jelly names for the escaped

lioness in the book. Students should record those three book-given clues before naming a location;

do not substitute Jelly's relationship with Mwezi for this reasoning step.

  • The supported location is the parking lot. A reliable answer makes the chain explicit: the three

feelings/evidence points narrow where Mwezi would go, Jelly predicts the parking lot, and the search tests that prediction.

  • The prediction is confirmed when Mwezi is located in the parking lot. Jelly then helps return the

lioness safely to her enclosure. The key outcome is evidence -> predicted hiding place -> check -> confirmation.

Assessment

  • Several pieces of evidence are recorded before the prediction.
  • The prediction fits the recorded constraints.
  • The student checks the prediction against the text and can identify the strongest supporting

evidence.

Short route · 15 minutes

3 min - name/model the skill. 8 min - gather the minimum evidence required on the student page. 4 min - explain the answer and verify it against the book.

Watch for

Guessing a location first and then retrofitting evidence after the answer is known.

Source note

Extracted and audited as a standalone from the ELA unit Using the Evidence. No regional standards are attached to this standalone skill lesson.

STUDENT EVIDENCE · GRADES 2-3

Princess Angelica, Part-Time Lion Trainer

Working Out Where a Lion Would Hide

Name ______________________________________ Date __________________ A three-row inference sheet, a predicted search location or strategy, and a check against the outcome.

page 2

EVIDENCE 1

EVIDENCE 2

EVIDENCE 3

MY PREDICTION

WHAT HAPPENED / CHECK

EXIT CHECK

What makes a prediction evidence-based instead of a guess?

_________________________________________________

TEACHER KEY · GRADES 2-3

Princess Angelica, Part-Time Lion Trainer

Working Out Where a Lion Would Hide

Book-specific answer anchors

  • The inference must start with the three feelings/evidence points Jelly names for the escaped

lioness in the book. Students should record those three book-given clues before naming a location;

do not substitute Jelly's relationship with Mwezi for this reasoning step.

  • The supported location is the parking lot. A reliable answer makes the chain explicit: the three

feelings/evidence points narrow where Mwezi would go, Jelly predicts the parking lot, and the search tests that prediction.

  • The prediction is confirmed when Mwezi is located in the parking lot. Jelly then helps return the

lioness safely to her enclosure. The key outcome is evidence -> predicted hiding place -> check -> confirmation.

Expected student evidence

  • Several pieces of evidence are recorded before the prediction.
  • The prediction fits the recorded constraints.
  • The student checks the prediction against the text and can identify the strongest supporting

evidence.

Watch for

Guessing a location first and then retrofitting evidence after the answer is known.

Independent success

The student completes the required evidence product, uses the named book-specific evidence above, and can explain the reasoning move without relying only on recall or a teacher-supplied answer.

Unit source

Using the Evidence · Princess Angelica, Part-Time Lion Trainer by Monique Polak

page 3

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